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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd