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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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